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- Is DOGE A Dud?
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Last week, President-elect Trump laid out a pretty sketchy vision for a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) named for the eponymous crypto meme coin. He also named Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the organization.
This is confusing because DOGE doesn’t actually exist and whatever it will be isn’t part of the government. The term “Department” is a bit generous. If they take a more official role, the effort will trigger the Federal Advisory Commission Act (FACA) and that means lots of process, financial disclosures, and delays. I think they’ll do whatever they can to avoid that.
In reality, this is just another part of the pseudo world that exists somewhere in between social media and reality. Welcome to the future of government by meme.
What’s Elon’s Play?
Elon was never going to serve in the government. He owns multiple companies, most of which would lose substantial value if he sold his stake in them, and to serve in government, he would have to sell. The best he can do is pretend to be in government and DOGE is perfect for that.
Vivek has some companies he owns like Elon but they don’t seem as difficult to exit. Can’t they give this guy something real like HUD or Transportation? If it was good enough for the Mayor Pete, it’s good enough for Vivek.
Some have been calling DOGE a typical Blue Ribbon Commission of the type chartered in the wake of major national incidents like 9/11 or the botched response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. You get former politicians and experts to come together for a year or so, assess what happened, and come up with a game plan going forward. (I’m still waiting for the one on the Pandemic.)
However, DOGE isn’t even a Blue Ribbon Commission. Those are commissioned in legislation passed and funded by Congress and as a result there is some expectation that Congress will act on the findings. DOGE was “created” by a jpeg with words on it that the President-elect tweeted out.
What Is DOGE Good For?
That’s not to say that I think DOGE is meaningless. True, Elon and Vivek could create an organization called DOGE any time they wanted. They could hire and pay for staff to analyze government spending and regulation. They don’t really need Trump’s jpeg for that.
The only real value of DOGE in a governmental sense is in Elon and Vivek’s relationship with Trump. Trump can make his Office of Management and Budget Director talk to Elon and he can force them to put some of their recommendations in his budget. However, if DOGE does something Trump doesn’t like or if he simply gets tired of Elon jumping around or Vivek wearing the same clothes as him, the whole thing becomes irrelevant.
It’s a pretty shaky foundation but I do think it has one power.
Government By Meme
DOGE can do government by meme. Some people scoff and think this is ridiculous but I actually take it rather seriously. Memes are real and they can produce results. The election was just one meme after another.
Memes shape how people think and how people think leads to actions. It’s very possible that by shinning a light on government dysfunction, DOGE can produce some results.
I hold out hope that DOGE will focus on burdensome government procurement and permitting practices. People on both sides of the aisle sympathize with these concerns. Even environmentalists are seeing that laws like the National Environmental Policy Act block their green energy goals along with everything else. Maybe memes about obscure bee species blocking rocket launches can spur some action on permitting reform.
On the other hand, memes are ephemeral and people tend to move on pretty quickly. It’s hard to make changes to the government. First you have to get Trump make that OMB Director talk to you, and then you’ve got to get the thing you’re trying to change into the budget or into a bill that’s moving in the House and/or Senate. Then that meme needs to survive the meat grinder that is the legislative process and a year or two later, maybe you get something.
Don’t forget that every issue has a lobbyist behind it as well. True, Elon spent $200m to get Trump elected but Pharma alone spends $360m EVERY YEAR! There will be all sorts of knives out waiting to cut up whatever DOGE produces.
I’ll be curious to see if DOGE can navigate that rather complicated and multi-step process. Will the memes persist long enough to make it into law?
The DOGE Date
One bad sign for DOGE is the date it is supposed to wrap up its work. July 4, 2026. If that means DOGE delivers a comprehensive set of recommendations on that date, it is dead on arrival in my view. That is just a few months before the mid-term elections.
With a 3 seat majority in the Senate and a very narrow majority in the House, legislators are not going to be looking to spending the last several months before an election working on government reform. Very little happens in an election year. Add to this the traditional unpopularity of the party in power in their first mid-term and you’ve got a recipe for a whole lot of not doing anything.
DOGE has to produce recommendations now or within a the next few months to have any hope of success. After watching these fights for 30 years, it’s clear to me that you need to come into office with a plan ready to go. Developing your plan over 24 months means failure.
We also have to remember that government cuts sound great in the abstract but aren’t very popular in the specifics. I can’t help but be reminded that Trump ran about as far away from Project 2025 as he could during the campaign. Presumably because it was unpopular. DOGE’s goals sound an awful lot like Project 2026.
Along the way we’ll probably have a series of incidents that opponents will use to highlight the importance of federal workers and services. One hurricane with FEMA workers saving people could end DOGE.
All that said, I have some hope that DOGE can focus early on government regulatory and procurement reform. There is enough agreement on both sides to get something done here. What I fear is a long period of staffing up, developing recommendations, or fighting over potentially unpopular cuts. That will doom the effort. If Trump begins to see it as a liability for the mid-terms, it’ll be toast.
Keep learning,
Alan
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